An in-depth study of the Methow Valley’s economy reveals striking disparities in income and attitudes among residents who live and work here full-time, and people who are part-time residents and/or remote workers.
The economic disparity is clearly evident in a comparison of average incomes for locally employed residents and people who derive their income from outside the Methow Valley.
The median household income for families who live and work in the Methow Valley is $57,779, with nearly 60% of working families earning less than $55,000 a year.
By contrast, the median income reported by remote workers was $202,000 – almost four times the income of most locally employed residents.
That stark difference was one of the most surprising findings of the study for Julie Tate-Libby, who conducted the economic research for TwispWorks over an 18-month period.
“I knew that remote workers were going to make more money than local people. I had a theory about what it was going to be. The actual results blew me away. I didn’t know that it would be $200,000 compared to $55,000,” said Tate-Libby, TwispWorks director of programming. “For people who have lived in the Methow Valley for a very long time, who live and work and depend on the Methow Valley for wages, the gap is getting bigger and bigger.”
Called “A Comprehensive Economic Study of the Methow Valley,” the report was commissioned by the TwispWorks board of directors to identify how the valley is changing and how those changes are impacting people who live and work here. Throughout 2020 and 2021, information was gathered through surveys of residents, business owners, and employees; community listening sessions and events; and analysis of data on tourism, real estate, population, housing, and other sources. More than 1,000 residents provided feedback.
The survey of residents received 708 responses; 267 were retired or mostly retired, 213 worked remotely or with one partner employed in the Methow Valley, and 229 reported being entirely locally employed.
Struggling with change
The study examines economic influences including the valley’s demographics, tourism, vacation homes, local businesses, residential construction and housing. It also delves into an area that has not been explored in depth in other studies of the Methow Valley – the attitudes and concerns of different categories of residents – locally employed, retired or semi-retired, and remote workers.
The different groups were asked in surveys about personal well-being, quality of life, and the future of the Methow Valley. The differences in their perceptions reveal a community that is struggling with the changes it is undergoing.
“The well-being index and quality of life measurements suggest that those with less financial and social capital feel less engaged or welcome in the community than those with higher means,” the report found. “Whether for reasons having to do with socio-economic class, political orientation, or residency status, feelings of social alienation are an undercurrent to the dominant narrative that everyone loves the Methow and that there are many ways to be involved.”
The differences in opinion among the different types of residents were also evident in attitudes on environmental and social issues. “Local residents were more concerned about overpopulation, gentrification and the disappearance of agricultural lands, while retirees and remote workers were more concerned about climate change and forest fires,” the report said.
In surveys, local residents showed more concern about all social issues than either retirees or remote workers. For example, 18% of local residents were very concerned with increasing poverty, compared to only 5% of remote workers, and 22% of local residents said affordable housing was very concerning, compared to 8% of remote workers.
Asked about the future of the Methow Valley, gentrification arose as the biggest issue in the survey of residents. “Gentrification comments had to do with the rising cost of homes, increasing economic disparity, the sense that the Methow is becoming like Jackson Hole or Aspen, and differences between urban and rural residents,” the report said.
“Overall, residents’ comments on their thoughts and concerns for the future of the Valley illustrate a clear consensus on the negative impact of more people moving into the Valley and what it might become,” Tate-Libby wrote.
The report quantifies, for the first time, the concerns and opinions of different categories of valley residents. “To date, no other survey in the Methow Valley has targeted its second home or remote worker population or received as many qualitative comments or respondents across a variety of social positions,” Tate-Libby said.
Rural restructuring
Excerpts from the report listed below offer insights into the current state of the Methow Valley and its residents, and the impacts of what the report calls a “rural restructuring common in recreational areas, and likely to deepen in the future.”
• More than 1,000 homes were built in the Methow watershed between 2005 and 2020, most in unincorporated areas. The report tallied 2,650 full-time residential homes and 1,966 part-time homes, with an estimated population of 6,400 full-time residents and 4,380 part-time residents.
• Resident surveys suggest that almost one-third of valley residents (31%) are either fully remote workers or are supported by a spouse or partner who derives at least part of their income from outside the valley.
• Growth in the Methow has been fueled by “amenity migration” – the movement of people in search of community and lifestyle – particularly since the onset of COVID-19.
• “The impact of remote workers on the housing market in 2020 cannot be overstated.” During the summer of 2020, real estate sales broke all existing records.
• Part-time residents spend more time in the Methow than previously presumed, and the lack of available homes for sale or rent is directly correlated to amenity migration. “While amenity migrants are highly educated and bring a large amount of cultural capital to the Methow Valley, they are also changing the place they find so desirable.”
• The Methow Valley has an aging population, with nearly 40% over the age of 60, in part due to the influx of retirees. Altogether 60% of the population is not working age, contributing to a shortage of workers and a shrinking labor force.
• Demographic trends show poverty increasing among families with children and among working families in general in the Methow Valley. Poverty rates are higher in Winthrop, with 48% of families earning less than $35,000/year, compared to 39% in Twisp.
• Wages in the Methow Valley have not kept pace with the rising cost of homes and property. “Wealth is concentrated in the incoming residents, while long-term residents and local families face increasing economic disparity.”
• Like many rural areas, the Methow Valley is experiencing a “brain drain,” as 85-90% of Liberty Bell High School graduates leave to pursue college or technical training. Most do not return due to low wages and lack of professional opportunities in the valley.
• The valley has an estimated 525 small businesses, employing almost 1,000 people. More than half the businesses are owned by women, and 40% have no employees.
• While the Methow Valley is dependent on tourism, that accounts for only 25% of the total economy. The building industry contributes by far the largest cash flow in terms of sales and spending (46% of the economic base), but only 9% in terms of employment.
• An estimated 476,746 visitors spend the night in the Methow Valley each year. Tourism spending adds up to $69.7 million, and creates about 450 tourist-related or service jobs.
• The residential building industry generates $113 million per year on average in the Methow Valley economy, and reached $145 million in 2020.
Action areas
“The big picture view of the economy of the Methow afforded to us by this study really highlights the changes in the population across the board,” said Sarah Brown, TwispWorks executive director.
“Only 40% of the population in the valley is of working age; extreme differences in incomes really drove home our housing and cultural challenges as well as the need to support vocational training and an economy that is more diversified,” Brown said.
“The income inequality information, especially the increasing number of our families and children struggling with poverty and hunger, was striking and highlights a broken system,” she said.
“In light of the structural changes occurring in the Methow Valley,” Tate-Libby suggested five areas for action in her report.
They include addressing a crisis in affordable housing; developing support systems for the aging population and creating incentives for local youth to stay or return to the Methow Valley; and investing in affordable child care facilities to help families and alleviate the worker shortage.
Tate-Libby, who focused on amenity migration in her doctoral research, also recommended action designed to reduce the valley’s economic dependence on residential construction and real estate sales, which are dependent on scarce water resources. She suggested investing in agricultural tourism and value-added products created locally.
She also recommended addressing the differences between local residents and new and part-time residents, and wrote in the report, “As we have seen, marked difference in attitudes exists between residents and an undercurrent of tension between the haves and the have-nots.”
Her report called for “a renewed commitment to educating our population on the socioeconomic diversity that exits, the problems of housing, child care, livable wages, and differences in attitudes between people (to) enrich the resident experience and bring light to existing socioeconomic divides.”
The report can be found online at twispworks.org.
